Chicago Grains End Mostly Lower, Save For Corn

20/01/16 — Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, kicked on the way by weak outside markets like crude oil and equities. Yet, despite the much quoted “concerns over Chinese soybean demand” things in that direction are going pretty well (even if it isn’t just the US that they are buying from). CNGOIC estimated China’s 2015/16 soybean imports at a record 85 MMT, way above the USDA’s projected 80.5 MMT forecast. China has already physically taken 3.5 MMT more in Q1 of 2015/16 than it did last year. Brazil and Argentina are however well placed to service this need, with bumper/record crops of their own on the way, a more relaxed attitude to exports and acutely weak domestic currencies. Mar 16 Soybeans settled at $8.74, down 9 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybeans settled at $8.74 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Mar 16 Soybean Meal settled at $269.80, down $1.50; Mar 16 Soybean Oil settled at 29.81, down 22 points.Corn: Corn closed around a cent of so higher on the day. Crude oil and heating oil set new lows. South Korea is buying Argentine feed wheat, possibly in preference to corn. The USDA reported the sale of 243,100 MT of US corn to Mexico for 2015/16 under the daily reporting system. Fund money was estimated as ending the session an overall net modest buyer. They have established a record short position in recent weeks, so bouts of short-covering are always likely, and possibly can occur with little tangible reason to explain them. The USDA’s regular weekly export sales numbers will be delayed a day to Friday due to Monday’s Martin Luther King holiday. Mar 16 Corn settled at $3.68 3/4, up 1 cent; May 16 Corn settled at $3.73 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed a few cents lower. US wheat remains largely too expensive to export to all but non-traditional homes. Argentine feed wheat is heading to the US. Egypt decided to test the water again and tendered for wheat tonight with the results expected tomorrow. Recall that they’ve held up 3 vessels of French wheat since their last tender due to problems with letters of credit. They’ve also been tinkering with the terms of their tenders. Doubtless they will still find eager sellers though. Japan is tendering for US wheat. Weakness in crude is keeping the Russian rouble under pressure, helping them to maintain a competitive edge. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.75 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.77 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents; May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.99 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.