Futures Close 19/05/22

Global supply chain concerns continue – but wheat markets have pulled back from record highs amid higher forecast production in Russia – given that Russia also has large stocks, and increased harvest forecasts (IKAR plus 1.5mt to circa 85mt and up 6mt YOY ).  This is weighing despite the issues with the Ukraine war – Russia still forecast to export circa 39mt of wheat in the next marketing year.  Any export ban could be detrimental as there is limited space to store the carry over stock and a bumper harvest.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, said on Wednesday that he was in “intense contact” with Russia, Ukraine, Turkey, the United States, and the European Union in an effort to restore Ukrainian grain export as a global food crisis worsen.

Agroconsult reduced its forecast of Brazil’s second corn crop to 87.6 million tonnes in the 2021/2022, down from a previous 92.2 million tonne forecast.