Futures Close Report: 10th August 2017

Thursday USDA report seen as bearish by markets:

• The Soybean yields were the big shock with a final figure from USDA at 49.4bpa (previously 48bpa) against pre-report range of estimates 47 – 47.5bpa.  Corn yields were also put above estimates at 169.5bpa vs estimates for 164.5bpa.  This was a slight reduction on the previous USDA figure of 170.7 bushels per acre;

• In light of these yield figures US raised their projected 17/18 stock carry outs to 475 million bushels for Soybeans above the high end of analysts’ forecasts.  Whilst Corn projected ending stocks for 17/18 were reduced slightly to 370 million bushels in line with market estimates.

Conab, Brazil’s agricultural statistics and food supply agency, on Thursday raised its estimate for the country’s 2016/17 soybean crop to 114 million tonnes from 113.92 million tonnes in July, citing an increase in planted area.

Russian grain harvest projected at 125.2 million tonnes this year according to SovEcon up from their previous estimate of 117 million tonnes.  Increase put down excellent crop yields and good crop condition for spring grains.  Of this Wheat made-up 77.9 million tonnes.  Up from the previous 72.9 million tonnes.