Futures Close Report 13th December 2018

Argentina’s 2018-19 wheat harvest is estimated at 19.0 million tonnes as slight reduction (-200k) on previous forecast owing to the impact of frost and hail on some cropping areas.  Circa 57% of the harvest is completed.

US govt forecaster has put chance of El Niño weather pattern emerging during northern hemisphere winter 18/19 at 90% although with current sea surface temperatures the forecast is indicating a weak El Nino (typical El Niño impacts = drier Australia, wetter USA, milder winter for Canada / North America, wetter than normal for Brazil / Arg).