With USDA due to publish their quarterly stock data on Friday afternoon (5pm UK time) attention is turning to analyst projections on the data – by and large analysts expect final U.S. corn and soybean ending stocks to land slightly above USDA’s current projections that were issued 2 weeks ago. Over recent history (last 4 years) analysts have overestimated the USDA final figure for September stocks. USDA has revised the prior year’s soybean crop in 16 of the last 18 September stocks reports – raising the figure nine times and lowering it seven times. In short a speculative opportunity for high frequency traders.
Ongoing China / US trade war remains in focus – Trade flows are clearly changing with a potential fall in Chinese demand, as they continue to purchase South American supply’s during what would otherwise be peak US export season. India has also reported the potential to export 600k tonnes of Soybean meal to China proving that China is leaving no stone unturned in terms of origin to avoid buying any US Soybeans / Meal.