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Futures Close Report  9th May  2018

Markets positioning ahead of the monthly USDA S&D report released Thursday pm –  from a global wheat production stance – expectations are that US grains will have suffered yield loss due to drought,  whilst Black Sea (Russia and Ukraine) are both expected to see good levels of production.   Analyst estimates see global wheat stocks slightly down year on year from the record high of 271 millon tonnes at the end of last year.

China Ag Ministry is forecasting the first decline in Soybean imports since 2003/4 for the forthcoming crop year from Oct 18 – whilst its only a 0.3% cut to 95.65 million tonnes it will nevertheless shows the potential impact of the ongoing trade dispute beweeen the USA and China. The threat of hefty tariffs has pushed up the domestic price of soymeal in China and sent feedmakers on a path to source alternative sources of protein for farmers already grappling with pork prices at multi-year lows.