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Futures Close Report 11th September

China has firmly cut its forecast for soybean imports for the current year (18/19) due to demand reduction caused by US / China trade conflict.  Imports of soybeans in the crop year that starts on Oct. 1 will be 83.65 million tonnes, down 10.2 million tonnes from last month’s estimate of 93.85 million tonnes, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly crop report.

Brazil’s government on Tuesday raised their projection for soybean exports in the 2017/18 crop to 76 million tonne, up 2 million tonnes due to strong Chinese demand, reducing the crop’s end-stocks to the lowest on record.  Agricultural statistics agency Conab raised by 300,000 tonnes its projection for the country’s 2017/18 soybean crop from August to 119.3 million tonnes, the second-highest output ever, but even with that increase soy end-stocks fell to 434,000 tonnes from 638,000 tonnes last month.  This serves as further indication that China will ultimately be forced to buy US Soybeans as an interim as old crop stocks run out.

  • US crop condition –
    • Corn reported 68% good /excellent up from 67% last week   harvest was 5% complete slightly ahead of 5 year average pace.
    • Soybeans reported 68% good / excellent up from 66% last week.
    • US Spring wheat was 93% harvested and Winter plantings were reported as 5% complete.

USDA latest monthly supply and demand report will be released this afternoon.