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Futures Close Report 12th September

USDA reports-  markets surprised by increase in US Corn yield projection to 181.3 bushels per acre – analysts had been expecting a drop.   If realised this would put the harvest for 18./19 at second biggest ever fig of 14.827 billion bushels.   US Corn end stocks seen rising to 1.774 billion bushels up from August estimate of 1.684 billion = bearish.    For Soybeans  production seen at 4.693 billion bushels, based on average yields of 52.8 bushels per acre. US Domestic soybean ending stocks for the 2018/19 marketing year seen rising to 845 million bushels. This is above both the previous year’s 395 million bushels ending stocks and the previous forecast for 2018/19 of 785 million bushels made in August.

FC Stone forecast Aussie wheat crop at 18.78 million tonnes – a level below the current official Austrailian govt estimate of 19.1 million tonnes, which is in itself a 10 year low due to the ongoing drought challenge being faced by the East Coast.

Rosario Grains Exchange forecast for Argie Soybean crop at 50 million tonnes for 18/19,  Corn production seen falling to 43 milliion – 2 million tonnes lower than previous estimate, owing to changes in planting intentions due to tax reforms.