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Futures Close Report: 18th January 2018

Arg Soybean planting estimated at 96.7% complete by the Buenas Aires grains exchange, however, in comments they have left room for a reduction in the planted area owing to continued delays in planting caused by continuing dry conditions.  Later planted crops run a higher risk of frost damage at critical growth phases during May and June.

Analyst Strategie Grains put 2017/18 soft wheat exports from the European Union at 21.6m tonnes, down 750,000 tonnes from last month and some 2.5 million tonnes below last season.  Russia continues to be the dominant force across the global export trade.  EU Carryout position was forecast at 12 million tonnes, down 1.5 million from 2017/18.

IGC Forecast:

    • World wheat production in 2017/18 was raised by 8 million tonnes to 757 million, due to improved outlooks in Russia, Canada, Argentina and Australia.  However, 18/19 production figures show a lower forecast of 742 million tonnes.
    • The IGC also increased its forecast for 2017/18 global corn (maize) production by 14 million tonnes to 1.054 billion tonnes, partly reflecting upward revisions for the European Union, China and Nigeria.
    • Global corn stocks at the end of the 2017/18 season were seen at 322 million tonnes, well up from a previous forecast of 206 million tonnes.