US markets all about the G20 and any outcomes on trade to China – US stockpiles need China to return to buying. The U.S. Department of Agriculture suggests that domestic soybean supply relative to demand in 2018-19 will rise to the highest levels in 33 years with a ratio of 23 percent. That is considerably larger than the previous year’s 10 percent, which was the largest since 2006-07. China accounted for half of U.S. soybean exports in 2017-18, but first-quarter 2018-19 shipments are down nearly 98 percent on the year.
Tensions in the Azov Sea between Russia and Ukraine appear to be escalating with two Ukrainian ports effectively under blockade. Ukraine can still redirect grain exports to other black sea ports but it does restrict some of the capacity. Azov Sea exports represent only approx. 5% of Ukraine exports so not a huge impact in grain terms.